Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.669036 21.403381 23.321494 25.620538 28.329216 31.455548 35.392404
2024-10-20 16.825922 19.049926 21.689116 25.121641 29.580706 35.355559 43.739319
2024-10-27 15.574178 18.209924 21.527470 26.166572 32.780687 42.436086 58.986324
2024-11-03 14.205707 16.972164 20.597601 25.938164 34.112472 47.286638 73.641296
2024-11-10 13.244944 16.109826 19.994148 25.982608 35.766284 53.150604 94.436102
2024-11-17 12.514461 15.455612 19.562669 26.157940 37.611871 60.060784 124.975538
2024-11-24 11.896562 14.883189 19.160256 26.279348 39.355998 67.579777 169.832766
2024-12-01 11.284302 14.257600 18.599665 26.035778 40.340360 73.943541 227.757120
2024-12-08 10.815575 13.797186 18.235580 26.056303 41.836638 82.531148 337.519947
2024-12-15 10.346964 13.299447 17.761753 25.807777 42.702325 90.031691 513.353846
2024-12-22 9.931942 12.852227 17.326468 25.565286 43.522848 98.147436 887.459384
2024-12-29 9.566592 12.456200 16.939576 25.359490 44.383418 107.327751 2067.078019
2025-01-05 9.236080 12.100330 16.601002 25.224960 45.457018 118.979459 25910.501984
2025-01-12 8.858739 11.652160 16.077634 24.669779 45.341307 125.623221 NaN
2025-01-19 8.770695 11.650304 16.306397 25.652769 49.671246 162.543190 NaN
2025-01-26 8.494887 11.334655 15.969608 25.419816 50.493253 181.064951 NaN
2025-02-02 8.281246 11.107475 15.771291 25.457862 52.175976 211.591018 NaN
2025-02-09 8.101650 10.925791 15.640018 25.625231 54.359381 256.682421 NaN
2025-02-16 7.927088 10.743371 15.494178 25.741665 56.449193 315.143163 NaN
2025-02-23 7.717165 10.493179 15.208931 25.506077 57.235740 364.357106 NaN
2025-03-02 7.553395 10.312477 15.040646 25.525768 59.021067 456.270374 NaN
2025-03-09 7.367082 10.086507 14.775088 25.285631 59.740503 542.432749 NaN
2025-03-16 7.192199 9.873198 14.522052 25.051304 60.440557 655.809588 NaN